SCBJB's Market Outlook H1/2025: A Year of "Winds of Change" Recommending Diversified Investment
SCB-Julius Baer Securities Co., Ltd. (SCB Julius Baer) recently hosted an exclusive seminar, "Market Outlook H1/2025" for high-net-worth clients, presenting Julius Baer's perspectives on key factors influencing investments in the first half of the year. According to Julius Baer, 2025 is a year of "Winds of Change" for the global economy and investments, particularly due to shifts in US policies, which present both challenges and opportunities. In the first half of the year, the overall outlook and investment strategy indicate that the US economy remains strong and stable. Regarding interest rate trends, the US Federal Reserve is expected to maintain current rates for an extended period. It is advisable to continue investing, with a focus on adjusting strategies to suit the evolving situation. Diversifying investments into quality mid-cap stocks, particularly in the industrial and financial sectors, is recommended to preserve the portfolio's value. The event was honored by Mr. Adrian Mazenauer, Interim Chief Executive Officer and Mr. Kean Tan, Managing Director Senior Advisor Head of Investment Solutions of SCB-Julius Baer Securities Co., Ltd., together with Mr. Mark Matthew, Head of Asia Pacific Research of Julius Baer and Mr. Bhaskar Laxminarayan, Chief Investment Officer, Asia Pacific of Julius Baer.
Mr. Adrian Mazenauer, Interim Chief Executive Officer of SCB-Julius Baer Securities Co., Ltd., stated, "The year 2024 saw significant events, including the Republican victory and the return of Donald Trump to the presidency in January 2025, which led to the S&P 500 outperforming European stocks by 23% and the small-cap indices in the US starting to rally. According to Julius Baer's Global Economic Outlook for the First Half of 2025, this year is a year of 'Winds of Change' for the global economy. These changes bring both challenges and opportunities. The US economy continues to grow robustly, despite heightened policy uncertainty, while Europe faces pressure to address economic weaknesses. And with the Republican majority in the US, China faces pressure to implement additional stimulus. The Fed's ability to cut interest rates further is limited by robust growth, while Europe and China still have room to cut rates further."
"In terms of investment strategy, we still recommend continuous investment and focus on adjusting strategies to suit the situation. For bonds, we recommend investing in private bonds of US companies with lower investment grades and credit ratings ranging from BBB+ to BBB- with remaining maturities of 3-5 years. Private credit investment continues to provide satisfactory returns amid narrow credit spreads. Selected emerging market US-denominated corporate bonds and subordinated financial instruments are also attractive. The stock market is still in a bull market. The US stock market has been continuously rising for the past 2 years, which has given rise to a chance for adjusting fundamentals. This will create investment opportunities. The US stock market is still our favorite market. We recommend diversifying your investments into quality mid-cap stocks, such as industrial products and financial businesses. In addition, investing in alternative assets such as private equity firms and businesses that invest in infrastructure and public utilities outside the market will help diversify risks to reduce portfolio volatility. We remain committed to providing comprehensive and quality wealth management services and solutions that are internationally recognized, which can help plan your finances and effectively transfer your wealth in all market conditions for high-net-worth clients in Thailand. This truly reaffirms SCB Julius Baer's commitment to 'Your Legacy. Our Promise.'" Mr. Mazenauer added.
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