SCB Julius Baer optimistic about global markets in second half of 2024, recommends diversifying investments in cyclical sectors amid economic recovery
SCB Julius Baer Securities Co., Ltd. (SCB Julius Baer) recently hosted an exclusive seminar titled "Market Outlook for the Second Half 2024" for Ultra High Net Worth Individuals (UHNWIs). The seminar featured insights prepared by Julius Baer, predicting a favorable shift in the global economy, often described as being "Out of the Woods." This period is seen as an opportune time to diversify investments across various assets. The U.S. economy is expected to continue its robust growth, with a potential interest rate cut anticipated in September. Additionally, global trade is likely to benefit from the resurgence of China's industrial sector. In terms of investment strategy, maintaining cash reserves remains prudent, allowing flexibility to allocate funds into other asset classes in the latter half of the year. The focus continues on investing in high-quality bonds and U.S.-denominated debt instruments in emerging markets. A greater emphasis is recommended on investing in cyclical stocks. For themes related to the next generation, there is a continued positive outlook on sectors like Automation, Robotics, and Future Cities.
Mr. Peerapong Jirasevijinda, Chief Executive Officer of SCB Julius Baer Securities Co., Ltd., shared insights into the global economic landscape for the second half of 2024, as analyzed by Julius Baer. He noted, "The global economy is showing early signs of recovery, suggesting we are moving 'Out of the Woods.' This makes it an opportune time for strategic investment diversification. The US economy remains robust, buoyed by substantial fiscal stimulus and a recovering labor market, fostering optimism for a potential interest rate cut in September. Conversely, Europe and China, particularly due to its challenging real estate sector, face economic hurdles. However, measures taken by China to address domestic issues are expected to bolster global trade and herald a new cycle of manufacturing stockpiling. The market correction observed in the second quarter presents an investment opportunity, particularly as we approach the significant event of the US presidential election on November 5, 2024."
"From a stock market perspective, we are adopting a more cyclical investment approach, increasing focus on industrial stocks while reducing exposure to consumer stocks. We are concentrating on quality mid-cap stocks and Japanese equities. Despite the strong domestic economy and the Federal Reserve's high interest rate policy keeping the USD strong, the JPY is likely to continue facing downward pressure, with interventions by the Ministry of Finance potentially unsustainable in the long term. Gold is expected to serve as a reliable hedge against political uncertainty. Regarding the Next-Generation themes, we maintain a positive outlook on Automation, Robotics, and Future Cities." Mr. Peerapong concluded.
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