Prime retail rents in the world’s leading retail destinations have stabilised across the globe, with some markets now witnessing rental growth as the economic recovery gathers momentum and consumer confidence starts to improve, according to CB Richard Ellis’ (CBRE) latest Global Retail MarketView. Demand for prime retail space in most markets remains strong, with some cities seeing substantial annual growth at the end of the third quarter (Q3) of 2010.
Prime retail rents globally increased by 0.2% from the second quarter to the third quarter of 2010. Rents on a year-on-year basis grew in three of the major global regions, with the Americas seeing the highest rental increase (6% year-on-year), Asia following with a 4% increase and the Pacific region growing by 3% year-on-year. In contrast, rents in Europe, Middle East and Africa (EMEA) fell by 3% year-on-year in Q3 2010, largely due to the effects of the economic downturn in markets including Spain, Ireland and Greece. However, rents remained largely stable in most EMEA markets in Q3 and some cities have seen significant annual rental growth, with Edinburgh and London growing by 25% and 20% respectively compared to the same period in 2009.
New York City continues to dominate as the world’s most expensive retail market, with prime rents at THB 48,420 per sq.m. per month. Sydney moved into second place globally (from third in Q2 2010, at THB 32,764 per sq.m. per month) and Hong Kong ranked third (THB 29,940 per sq.m. per month). London remains in fourth place, after recording a 20% annual increase in retail rents year-on-year (now THB 23,968 per sq.m. per month) and Tokyo rounds out the top five locations (THB 21,628 per sq.m. per month).
Emerging markets continue to outperform some of the more mature economies with Latin America’s economic performance continuing to outpace North America due to the ongoing growth of the region’s middle class and the demand for commodities on a global basis. Sao Paulo has seen some of the fastest growing retail rents in the past 12 months with a 30% increase year-on-year. Rio de Janeiro also features in the top five fastest growing markets with 23% annual growth.
REGIONAL HIGHLIGHTS
Europe, Middle East and Africa
London, Paris and Zurich (respectively) top the retail rents ranking in the EMEA region, with London overtaking Moscow as the fourth most expensive market in the world in Q3 2010. Although Europe has been trailing behind Asia and the Americas in terms of the global recovery, GDP growth in Western Europe has been stronger than expected, particularly in Germany where the economy grew by 2.2% in the second quarter of 2010. Europe continues to remain an attractive target for international retailers and occupier demand for prime retail locations has been relatively strong, with vacancy levels low and prime rental levels remaining stable. Over the last quarter (Q3), rents remained flat in the majority of locations. Zurich and Oslo have seen some of the most significant rental increases quarter-on-quarter with 6.7% and 7.1% growth respectively, with the largest rental falls in Madrid (-14%) and Abu Dhabi (-8.3%).
Americas
U.S. cities continue to lead the most expensive retail rents in the Americas region. Los Angeles and Chicago rank at 12th and 13th respectively within the global ranking, following New York as the most expensive destination in the world. Stability has returned to U.S. retail markets in 2010 and growth in consumer spending has stabilised. Latin America has seen some of the strongest growth in retail rents, with Sao Paulo and Rio de Janeiro increasing by 30% and 23% respectively year-on-year.
Asia
Asian retail markets have benefited from the regional economic upswing and continued to strengthen in Q3 2010. Retail property performance continued to diverge across mature and emerging markets in the region. The average prime rent stabilised and in some markets saw a minor uptick, most notably in Shanghai, Beijing, Guangzhou, Toyko, Taipei and Hong Kong with the majority either stabilising or posting modest growth. Despite the divergence of rental movements across the Asian region, prime retail locations dominated by major international luxury retail brands remained competitive. However, the threat of a supply imbalance of new retail space in the pipeline remains high in a number of cities across mainland China and India.
Bangkok was ranked at the 72th position in the global index and the ninth in Asia. Grade A rents for ground floor spaces in shopping centres located in downtown Bangkok range between THB 3,000 – 3,200 per sq.m. per month.
"Demand for prime retail space is very strong across the Asia markets given the robust retail spending backed by the continuous improvement of unemployment rates and household incomes in the region. In China, the upbeat consumer sentiment is most prevalent in Shanghai and Guangzhou, thanks to the Shanghai World Expo and the Guangzhou Asian Games this year. Meanwhile Hong Kong continues to benefit from the strong influx of Chinese Mainland tourists. These factors collectively pushed up the retail rents for prime retail space," said Nick Axford, Executive Director, Head of Research, Asia at CBRE.
Pacific
The economic position and outlook of the Pacific region bodes well for the region’s retail market, however in practice, although consumer confidence has improved, this has still not translated into a significant increase in retail sales. Sydney has moved into second place in the ranking of the world’s most expensive cities globally (THB 32,764 per sq.m. per month) with Brisbane and Melbourne in ninth and tenth places respectively. The retail sector in “super prime” CBD markets across the region are proving more resilient than other areas of the sector. The constraint on new development coupled with a revitalisation of key areas in some major cities has ensured that high rental premiums have been maintained across the Pacific in Q3 2010. Prime rents in Sydney's CBD are anticipated to rise following the opening of the first phase of Westfield Sydney on Pitt Street Mall. International and domestic retailers are relocating in response to new and refurbished space being introduced to the super prime submarkets of the larger CBD’s, such as Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane. This new space and subsequent relocation may increase vacancy in the short term in the surrounding prime and secondary CBD locations, as well as inner suburban prime areas.
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