EXIM Thailand Predicts Thai Economic and Export Growth of 3% in 2025, Being Set to Develop Financial Innovations and Sustainably Enhance Competitiveness of Thai Businesses on Global Stage
Dr. Rak Vorrakitpokatorn, President of Export-Import Bank of Thailand (EXIM Thailand), revealed that Thai economy in 2025 tends to expand by 3% supported by the continued increasing domestic demand driven by public spending, investment and consumption along with foreign demand in tourism and exports which are on the growing trend in line with ongoing global economic recovery. According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), global economic growth in 2025 is forecasted at 3.2% (unchanged from 2024) and global trade growth in 2025 at 3.4% (higher than the past 10-year average of around 2.8%). Prospective markets are new frontiers like India, CLMV (Cambodia, Lao PDR, Myanmar, and Vietnam), ASEAN-5, and the Middle East, which should enjoy economic growth of as high as 6.5%, 5.3%, 4.5% and 3.8% respectively in 2025. As a result, it is expected that Thai exports in 2025 will expand by 3%. Thai goods well marketable in the world markets include electronics, agricultural and food products, as well as such lifestyle products as cosmetics and pet foods. However, challenges remain, including geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East which may intensify freight and oil price volatility, foreign exchange volatility, and a potential new trade war (Trade War 2.0) stemming from President-elect Trump's proposed tariff hikes.
EXIM Thailand President said that, in 2025, EXIM Thailand, as a specialized financial institution under the supervision of the Ministry of Finance, will take the lead in helpinadvig Thai entrepreneurs penetrate international trade and investment markets. The Bank will promote exports and investments in Thai businesses with promising prospects in response to emerging consumer trends in global trade of the new era, comprising 1. Food for Security: Thailand ranks no. 10 in the list of countries with highest per capita food production in the world. Popular Thai goods in the world markets are canned tuna, processed chicken, sugar and canned sardine; 2. Good for Planet: Thai goods well accepted in the world markets include polylactic acid (PLA) and solar panels; and 3. Mood for Joy: Popular Thai goods are pet foods, silver jewelry, cosmetics, soap and skincare products, and wellness tourism. Besides, there are products with bright growth prospects in 2025 due to favorable impacts from President-elect Trump's policies. For example, Thailand's air-conditioners and electrical transformers could gain a higher US market share if higher tariffs are imposed on imports from China and other countries under such policies.
Dr. Rak further said that EXIM Thailand will remain steadfast in performing its role as Green Development Bank, leading Thai entrepreneurs in driving Thailand toward a low-carbon society, and helping build a sustainable world. The Bank has targeted to increase the proportion of environmental, social, and governance (ESG) loans to 40% of its total loan portfolio by 2025 in conjunction with launching investment banking service as a new service acting as the financial advisor to meet customer needs, conduct project feasibility studies, acquire funds for project financing, and provide bond guarantee for business entities with ESG concerns taken into account. EXIM Thailand will also continue to support export and investment dedicated to sustainable development, aiming to integrate Thai businesses of all sizes into the green export supply chain and achieve the EXIM Thailand's goals of carbon neutrality by 2027 and net zero emissions by 2050. This aligns with the estimated global climate finance needs of up to 8.6 trillion US dollars per year, compared to actual global climate finance of an average of only 1.4 trillion US dollars in 2022, highlighting a significant gap in addressing climate change solutions.
In the role of Green Development Bank, as of the end of November 2024, EXIM Thailand recorded total outstanding loans of 179,316 million baht, which is expected to reach 190,000 million baht by the end of 2024, up by 6.8% from 177,932 million baht as of the end of 2023. The Bank's non-performing loan (NPL) ratio is projected to decline to 3.49%, down by 1.2% from the end of 2023 as a result of its rigorous loan quality monitoring. The Bank is thus expected to post a net profit of over 1,000 million baht by the end of 2024.
"The year 2025 will see Thai economy advancing, propelled by twin-turbo engines, i.e., domestic demand and foreign demand. Meanwhile, there are ample opportunities for Thai businesses in new frontiers, particularly for businesses with capabilities of developing goods or services aligned with global market trends. EXIM Thailand has thus sought to drive exports with financial innovations so that Thai entrepreneurs are fully armed and empowered to compete on the global front and move toward sustainability amid the uncertainties of today's global trade markets," added Dr. Rak.
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